基于“多国模式”的中国—东盟自由贸易区贸易效应研究  

A Research on the Trade Effect of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area Based on Multiple-National Pattern

作　　者：黄新飞[1] 欧阳利思 王绪硕 

机构地区：[1]中山大学国际商学院 [2]平安银行零售银行部

出　　处：《学术研究》2014年第4期79-85,160,共7页Academic Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71003111);广东省自然科学基金自由申请项目(S2013010012456);广东省打造"理论粤军"2013年度重大现实问题资助项目(LLYJ1314);中国海洋发展研究中心招标课题"广东打造海洋经济强省的现代产业体系研究"的阶段性成果

摘　　要：基于"多国模式"的贸易引力模型,选取2004—2010年中国与东盟7国及17个主要贸易伙伴国的面板数据,对中国—东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)的贸易创造效应与贸易转移效应进行实证分析,结果表明:在控制了文化因素(共同语言和殖民地)、地理特征(陆地边界和岛国数量)和制度安排(WTO成员和区域贸易协定RTA)等变量后,CAFTA的建立对双边贸易产生127.04%的贸易创造效应,对成员国的进口产生了57.9%的贸易转移效应,且贸易转移效应每年以3.27%的速度递减。Based on the multiple-national ‘Augmented Gravity Model', we select panel data from 2004 to 2010 about Chinese bilateral trade flow, 7 counties of ASEAN and other 17 main trade partners of China around the world to do empirical analysis about the trade creation effect and trade diversion effect of CAFTA. The result showed that: after controlled variables like cultural factors included language and colony relation, geographical features involved land borders and island country, and institutional arrangements concerning WTO membership and RTA alliance, the trade creation effect on bilateral trade brought by CAFTA was up to 127.04, the trade diversion ef-fect on import of member country of CAFTA was 57.9%, while the trade diversion effect decreased by 3.27% per year.

关 键 词：贸易创造效应 贸易转移效应 多国模式 贸易引力模型 

分 类 号：F114.41[经济管理—国际贸易]