基于系统动力学模型的低碳城市发展研究  

Research on low-carbon city development based on system dynamics model

作　　者：刘伟[1] 陈超凡 桓汉青[1] 冯晞雨 

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程学院资源环境学院,四川成都610225 [2]攀枝花市城乡规划编制研究中心,四川攀枝花617000

出　　处：《环境污染与防治》2014年第4期86-91,共6页Environmental Pollution & Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(No.41101542);四川省教育厅重点项目(No.12ZA226);成都信息工程学院科研基金资助项目(No.CRF201227)

摘　　要：首先,对城市进行能流分析并基于可量化的目的确定低碳城市发展规划的重点;其次,构建出低碳城市发展规划指标体系;最后,采用系统动力学软件构建了低碳城市发展规划系统动力学模型。以北京市为例,设定3种情景模拟预测了2010-2020年北京低碳城市发展状况,结果表明:(1)趋势发展情景下,绝大部分指标未达到设定的规划目标;规划发展情景下,经济发展速度放慢,二氧化碳排放量、碳排放强度、能源强度等关键指标达到规划目标;政策调控情景下,经济保持快速平稳发展,主要指标基本达到规划目标(能流密度除外),达到城市低碳发展理想状态。(2)3种情景下,2020年碳排放强度分别较2010年下降36.1%、47.0%和55.4%;趋势发展和规划发展情况下的人均二氧化碳排放量分别较2010年上升22.7%、3.2%,政策调控情景则下降2.7%。同时,根据模型预测结果提出了北京低碳发展规划的建议。Base on the analysis of urban energy flow, the low carbon development planning priorities are deter mined for the purpose of quantitative analysis of city＇s low carbon development. Meanwhile,the index system of the lowcarbon development planning is established and Vensim software are used to set up the dynamic model. Take Bei jing as example,3 development scenarios were simulated to forecast the dynamic changes of its lowcarbon develop ment from 2010 to 2020. The simulation results showed that： （1）under the scenario of trend development,vast majori ty of indicators could not achieve the target value under the scenario of planning development, economic development would be slowdown, but some key indicators such as carbon dioxide emmission, carbon intensity, energy intensity could achieve the target value. Under the scenario of policy control, the economic maintained rapid development and main in dex （except energy intensity） could basically achieve the planning goal, the low carbon development is in an ideal state. （2） Under 3 scenarios,the carbon intensity in 2020 was decreased by 36.1% ,47.0% and 55.4% respectively compared with 2010%under the scenario of trend development and planning development,the per capita carbon emissions was increased by 22.7%, 3.2% respectively,while the 2.7 A decrease was found under the policy control scenario. Finally, some suggestions for low carbon development planning of Beijing are proposed according to the predicted results.

关 键 词：低碳城市 发展规划 系统动力学情景分析 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] N941.3[自然科学总论—系统科学]