基于DEMATEL与ISM集成方法的水上交通系统脆性影响因素研究  

Research on brittleness influencing factors of marine traffic system based on DEMATEL and ISM integrated method

作　　者：陆梦[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学交通运输学院,上海201306

出　　处：《上海海事大学学报》2014年第1期18-22,共5页Journal of Shanghai Maritime University

基　　金：上海市基础研究重点项目(05JC14073);上海海事大学博士创新能力培养专项资金(yc2012054)

摘　　要：为完善水上应急系统管理体系,建立水上交通系统脆性影响因素多层递阶结构模型.首先从人、物、环境和管理等方面分析脆性影响因素,然后结合解释结构模型(Interpretive Structure Modeling,ISM)法和决策试验和评价实验室(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory,DEMATEL)法融合的优势,将复杂的因素关系转化为直观的、良好的层次结构关系.通过水上交通系统脆性影响因素之间的内在运行机制和层次关系,可找出水上交通系统脆性最直接和最根本的影响因素.结果显示,该方法能深入挖掘水上交通系统事故发生的关键因素和这些因素之间的相互影响及层次关系,从而可为寻求水上交通系统事故发生的关键问题和改善水上交通环境提供方案.To improve the marine emergency management system, a multi-level recursive structural model of brittleness influencing factors in marine traffic system is established. First, the brittleness influencing factors are analyzed fl＇om the perspective of people, objects, environment and management. Then, by combining the integration advantage of Interpretive Structure Modeling （ISM） method and Decision Mak- ing Trial and Evaluation Laboratory （DEMATEL） method, the complex relationship among all factors is transformed into an intuitive and good hierarchical relationship. Through the internal operating mechanism and hierarchical relationship among brittleness influencing factors of marine traffic system, the most direct and most fundamental brittleness influencing factors of marine traffic system can be found. The research result shows that the method can deeply identify key factors resulting in accidents of marine traffic system and their interaction and hierarchical relationship, which can provide reference to seek key factors resul- ting in accidents of marine traffic system and to improve marine traffic environment.

关 键 词：水上交通 脆性因素 DEMATEL法 ISM法 

分 类 号：U698[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程] N945.1[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]