山东省第三产业与城镇化关系的实证研究——基于VAR模型  

Empirical Research on Relationship between Urbanization and the Tertiary Industry in Shandong Province

作　　者：张淑敏[1] 张宝雷[2] 

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学区域经济研究院,山东济南250014 [2]山东师范大学人口.资源与环境学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2013年第35期13769-13771,13774,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家教育部人文社科青年基金资助项目(11YJC790283;12YJC790254);山东省自然基金资助项目(2010ZRE-14029)

摘　　要：根据1990 ～2011年山东省第三产业产值比重和就业比重以及城镇化率的数据,采用VAR模型,运用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应、方差分解等方法,从实证研究的角度分析了山东省近20年来城镇化与第三产业发展之间的动态相关性以及因果关系.结果表明,从长期看,山东省第三产业产值比重和就业比重与城镇化率有协整关系,第三产业就业比重是城镇化的格兰杰原因,但城镇化不是第三产业发展的格兰杰原因,并分析了相关原因,提出相应的政策措施.According to the data of the output and employment proportion of the tertiary industry and urbanization of Shandong Province from 1990 to 2011, by using VAR model, co-integration test, Granger causality test, impulse response and variance decomposition, the paper ana- lyzed the dynamic correlation and causality between urbanization and the tertiary industry in Shandong Province during the recent 20 years. The results indicated that in the long run the output value proportion and employment proportion of the tertiary industry in Shandong Province had co-integration relationship with urbanization rate, employment proportion of the tertiary industry is the Granger cause of urbanization, but ur- banization is not the Granter cause of the tertiary industry. Then the paper discussed the related reasons, put forward corresponding policies and measures.

关 键 词：第三产业 城镇化 VAR模型 

分 类 号：S-9[农业科学] F320.3[经济管理—产业经济]