某城市物流中心货运需求量预测方法的分析研究  

Analysis of the Freight-Demand Prediction Technique of a Logistics Center

作　　者：姚玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽省交通勘察设计院有限公司,合肥230011

出　　处：《价值工程》2014年第13期14-15,共2页Value Engineering

摘　　要：针对腹地经济发展和物流业发展现状,首先以蚌埠市历年公路货运量统计数据为基础,采取多种预测方法对特征年公路货运量进行预测;以2011年蚌埠市公路货运站场货运需求量占公路货运量比例为基础,分析今后公路货运发展趋势,预测其所占市场份额的变化,结合预测的公路货运量,预测得到特征年蚌埠市公路货运站场货运需求量;根据该项目的功能定位,确定该项目的站场吞吐量。In consideration of the development situation of hinterland economy and logistics industry, the writer, basing on the statistic data of Bengbu＆#39;s highway freight volume over the years, adopts various prediction techniques to forecast the highway freight volume in specific years. By analyzing the proportion of the freight-demand volume of stations in highway freight volume in Bengbu in 2011, the writer does a research about the development tendency of road haulage in future and predicts its portion change. In view of the predicted highway freight volume, the writer gains the freight-demand volume of stations in Bengbu in specific years. Therefore,people can obtain the handing capacity of stations in this project.

关 键 词：货运需求预测 物流中心 弹性系数法 增长率法 

分 类 号：F250[经济管理—国民经济]