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机构地区:[1]咸阳市气象局,咸阳712000 [2]陕西省气候中心,西安710014
出 处:《价值工程》2014年第13期309-310,共2页Value Engineering
摘 要:利用陕西省8个气象站平行观测期间的自动站与人工站降水量资料,对日降水量差异、造成差异原因以及差异对气候预测评分的影响进行分析。结果表明:日降水量差值基本在正常范围之内,只有3个样本超出了误差范围;采集原理不同、采集时间不同步是造成差异的主要原因;自动站与人工站降水量观测记录的差异,导致个别月份气候预测分级评分出现错级现象,产生了两种不同的评分结果,给正确衡量预测水平带来误差。This paper uses automatic station and manual station precipitation data during parallel observation process of eight weather stations in Shaanxi Province to analyzes daily precipitation differences, causes and impacts of differences on climate prediction score. The results show that: the daily precipitation difference within the normal range basically, only three samples exceeded the margin of error;different collection principles and no-synchronized collection time are the main causes of differences;the difference of automatic station and manual station precipitation observation record resulting in individual months of grading climate predictions have wrong class phenomenon, produce two different scoring results and bring errors to correctly measure the forecast level.
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