劳动力供给与需求动态变化的优化研究:基于南京市的数据  

Optimization Study on Dynamic Changes of Labor Supply and Demand: Based on the Data of Nanjing

作　　者：王增文[1,2] 韩苹[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学公共管理学院,江苏南京210023 [2]南京财经大学城市发展研究院,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《南京财经大学学报》2014年第1期1-9,共9页Journal of Nanjing University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：南京市哲学社会科学基金重点项目:南京市劳动力供给与需求的优化研究(编号:12Z03);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目;江苏省"青蓝工程"资助项目;江苏省333工程资助项目;国家自然科学基金资助项目(编号:71003045)

摘　　要：随着经济结构的调整和产业结构的升级,经济持续增长,但是失业现象严重,在劳动力供求格局中,供大于求的矛盾进一步加剧。鉴于此,笔者结合南京市的实际状况,分别采用人口预测模型、就业弹性法等预测了2012—2020年南京市劳动力供需状况。研究结果显示,在2017—2018年间南京市劳动力供求处于一个平衡,之后南京市劳动力供大于求的格局将发生改变,供求缺口将会出现"倒挂"现象。但是从近期来看,南京市劳动力仍然会处于供大于求的"人口红利"格局。为解决劳动力供求格局中的矛盾,笔者提出了转变目前依靠生产要素投入的经济增长方式,加大和提升第三产业的发展力度以及实施积极的就业政策等建议措施。In pace with the adjustment of economic structures and upgrading of an industrial structure, economic growth continues, but unemployment becomes serious. And in the labor supply and demand pattern, the contradiction of oversupply of labor will aggravate further. In view of this, combining with the actual situation of Nanjing, authors adopted the population prediction model and employment elasticity method to predict labor supply and demand of Nanjing of 2012--2020 respectively. The results of study show that labor supply and demand in Nanjing will be in equilibrium in 2017--2018, then the situation of excess labor in Nanjing will convert. The supply and demand gap will appear ＂overhead hook＂. But judging from the recent, the labor force in Nanjing still be in the situation of oversupply of ＂demographic dividend＂. In order to solve the contradiction between labor supply and demand, we put forward many recommended measures, such as transforming the current mode of economic growth which depends on factors of production investment, increasing and promoting the development of tertiary industry, implementing active employment policy and so on.

关 键 词：劳动力供求 组合预测法 变权重劳动力需求 就业结构 

分 类 号：C979[经济管理—劳动经济]