高速公路BOT项目特许期决策模型  

A Decision-making Model of the Concession Period for BOT Highway Projects

作　　者：宋金波[1] 王若宇[1] 宋丹荣[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学工商管理学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《系统工程》2014年第2期91-97,共7页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71072107;71272091);辽宁省高等学校优秀人才支持计划项目(LJQ2013011)

摘　　要：特许期是政府和项目公司在高速公路BOT项目的前期决策阶段的重要决策参数。通过对此类项目特许期影响因素的因果关系分析,基于系统动力学方法构建了项目特许期决策模型。在此基础上,运用系统动力学分析软件Vensim PLE对高速公路BOT项目案例进行模拟,并采用敏感性分析方法考察年交通量、建设成本和运营成本等关键因素对特许期的影响程度,以期为政府和项目公司确定高速公路BOT项目的特许期提供决策参考。During the early decision-making stage of BOT highway project, concession period is one of the most important variables for the government and the project company. A decision-making model of the concession period using System Dynamics method is developed based on the analyses of the project influencing factors. On this basis, a simulation of highway BOT highway project case using software Vensim PLE is given, and the sensitivity analysis to investigate the effect of risk factors on concession period is put forward, including annual traffic, construction cost and operating cost, which provides a reference for determining the concession period of BOT highway projects for both the government and the project company.

关 键 词：高速公路 BOT 特许期 系统动力学 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：F294[经济管理—国民经济]