2013年全球矿业形势分析与展望  

An analysis and outlook for global mining in 2013

作　　者：杨宗喜[1] 唐金荣[1] 周平[1] 张涛[1] 朱丽丽[1] 金玺[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质调查局发展研究中心,北京100037

出　　处：《中国矿业》2014年第4期1-6,共6页China Mining Magazine

基　　金：中国地质调查局国土资源大调查项目"重要矿产资源对2020年;2025年与2030年国民经济建设保障程度研究"资助(编号:12120113079900);中国地质调查局国土资源大调查项目"地质调查情报跟踪与科技战略研究"资助(编号:12120113018800)

摘　　要：2013年，世界经济继续缓慢复苏，经济增长格局却出现重大变化。发达经济体整体向好，保持缓慢增长的势头，而作为世界经济主要驱动力的新兴经济体的增速却全面下滑。2013年以来，全球大宗矿产品需求萎缩，产能过剩较为严重，重要矿产品库存维系高位，主要金属价格基本呈震荡下行态势，矿产勘查投资减少，矿业公司现金流不足，矿业并购数量和额度呈“双下滑”趋势，全球矿业市场持续走低。总体来看，目前全球矿业仍处于二次探底的过程中，2015-2016年之前，去库存化、去产能化将主导中短期的矿业走势，全球矿业正步入微利、薄利时代，针对当前全球矿业下行中出现的新情况和新问题，我们提出几点建议：一是稳定地质勘查财政投入，增强社会服务能力；二是实施矿产地储备行动，保障未来资源供应；三是完善我国矿产资源管理制度，加快国际化步伐；四是持续推进“走出去”战略，强化保障体系建设；五是加大矿业科技投入，引导矿业公司进行科技创新。The world economy continued to recover slowly, and the pattern of economic growth has changed. Developed economies maintain a slow growth momentum, while the growth rate of emerging economies decline significantly. This year, the global bulk minerals demand shrink, overcapacity is more serious, mineral inventory maintain a high level, commodity prices experience downward trend, mineral exploration budget reduce, mining companies lack the cash flow, the number and amount of mining M＆A show decline trend both. Overall, the global mining industry is still in the process of double-dip recession. It estimated that, 2015 and 2016, destocking and decapacity will dominate mining industry in the short-term trend, and the global mining industry is entering a low-profit era. For the current new situations and new problems, we make a few suggestions. Firstly, the government should sustain stable financial investment, and enhance the ability of social services; Secondly, the implementation of mineral prospects reserve actions may protect the future supply of mineral resources; Thirdly, the government should improve the management system of mineral resources, and accelerate the pace of internationalization; Fourthly, international cooperation on mineral exploration and development may provide mineral resource; fifthly, mining companies should enhance scientific and technologieal innovation, and increase investment in mining technology.

关 键 词：全球矿业形势 矿产勘查 矿产品价格 矿产品供需 政策建议 

分 类 号：F407.1[经济管理—产业经济]