基于整体法的新农保个人账户基金收支平衡模拟与预测  

Simulation and Prediction of the Fund Equilibrium of New Rural Social Old-age Insurance's Personal Accounts from an Overall Aspect

作　　者：薛惠元[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学社会保障研究中心,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《保险研究》2014年第2期103-118,共16页Insurance Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目"新型农村社会养老保险制度的可持续性评估研究"(11CSH067);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"新型农村社会养老保险制度研究"(09JZD0027);中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目"新型农村社会养老保险基金收支平衡的可持续性研究"(2013T60748)

摘　　要：[摘要]依据现行政策，运用整体法，通过构建基金收支平衡精算模型，对2010～2054年中国新农保个人账户基金收支情况进行模拟和预测。结果表明，从短期来看（仅考虑当年基金的正常收支），2010～2054年间新农保个人账户基金收支均有盈余；从长期来看（考虑当年基金的正常收支、退保、转保、个人账户余额返还等因素），新农保个人账户基金收支差额在2010～2048年间为盈余，从2049年起出现缺口，但2010～2054年间新农保个人账户基金积累额呈现出直线增长趋势。为了实现新农保个人账户基金的收支平衡，建议设立新农保社会统筹基金，专门用于弥补基金收支缺口；适时推行新农保个人账户基金给付的年金化改革等。This paper made a fund equilibrium simulation and prediction of the new rural social old-age insurance＇ s personal accounts in 2010 -2054 from an overall aspect by building a fund balance actuarial model in line with the current policies. The result showed that, in the short term （ considering only the fund＇ s normal balance of pay- ments in the year） ,there was always a personal account surplus in 2010 -2054;in the long run （when considering such factors as the fund＇ s normal balance of payments, subscription quitting, plan transferring, and personal account balance refund）,there was personal account surplus in 2010 -2048, but a fund shortfall appeared from the year 2049, but the accumulated fund showed a linear growth trend throughout 2010 to 2054. In order to achieve the fund equilibrium,the paper proposed to establish a social pooling fund for the new rural social old-age insurance to make up for the fund shortfall;and implement the annuitization reform of personal account benefit payment in the due course.

关 键 词：新农保 个人账户 基金收支平衡 模拟与预测 整体法 

分 类 号：F840.61[经济管理—保险]