余弦数学模型分析江苏省疟疾发病的季节性分布特征  

Analysis of seasonal distribution of malaria in Jiangsu Province by cosine mathematical model

作　　者：许筱红[1] 

机构地区：[1]无锡商业职业技术学院基础部,江苏无锡214153

出　　处：《中国热带医学》2014年第2期231-232,共2页China Tropical Medicine

摘　　要：目的探讨江苏省疟疾发病的季节性规律,为制定防治措施提供科学依据。方法采用余弦曲线拟合方法。结果求得简单余弦函数拟合方程为y1i=0.0833+0.0948cos(ti-229.30°),含第二谐量三角多项式拟合为y2i=0.0833+0.0948cos(ti-229.30°)+0.028cos(2ti-108.80°)。估计每年疟疾发病人数的高峰日为8月21日,疟疾发病人数的低谷日为2月19日。结论余弦曲线数学模型对江苏省疟疾发病人数的拟合结果满意,疟疾发病有明显的季节性,该数学模型可对今后的疟疾发病趋势作预测。Objective To analyze the seasonal pattern of malaria infectionin Jiangsu Province, thus to guide the strategy of malaria control. Methods Cosine curve fitting method was employed for analysis of seasonal malaria incidence. Results Simple fitted equation of cosine function was obtainedy1i =0.0833＋0.0948cos（ti-229.30°）, the fitted equation of two harmonic quantity wasy2i =0.0833＋0.0948cos（ti-229.30°）＋0.028cos（2ti-108.80°）。The estimated peak of malaria cases is Auguest 21th, while the trough is February 19th. Conclusion Cosine mathematical model fitted the results of seasonal distribution of malaria infection in Jiangsu Province, which can predict the tendency of malaria infectionin the future.

关 键 词：余弦模型 拟合 季节性分布 疟疾 

分 类 号：R531.3[医药卫生—内科学]