基于多元线性回归的区域物流需求预测研究  

Regional Logistics Demand Forecasting Based on Multiple Linear Regression

作　　者：刘宇[1] 吴迎学[1] 党文峰 

机构地区：[1]中南林业科技大学,湖南长沙410004

出　　处：《物流工程与管理》2014年第3期52-54,共3页Logistics Engineering and Management

摘　　要：区域物流需求预测是区域物流规划、物流资源合理配置过程的重要环节而区域经济是产生区域物流需求的决定性因素,因此,利用区域经济指标来预测区域物流需求具有较强的可行性,同时能够促使区域物流产业与区域经济之间的协调发展。文中对茶陵县2001年至2012年的GDP、区域消费品零售总额、固定资产投资额等指标进行分析,构建多元线性回归模型,应用Eviews软件对茶陵县全部客货周转量进行预测,通过预测值与实际值的比较,说明线性回归模型的准确性、有效性,预测区域内未来的物流需求量。Regional logistics forecasting is the key step in regional logistics planning and logistics resources rationalization.Because regional economy is the inherent and determinative factor of regional logistics demand,it is feasible to forecast regional logistics demand by economic indexes which can accelerate the harmonious development of regional logistics industry and regional economy.In this paper,total cargo volume was predicted according to the GDP,total retail sales of consumer goods and sales of fixed assets from 2001 to 2012 in ChaLing County,which resorted to multiple linear regression models and the Eviews software.It＆#39;s demonstrated that multiple linear regression model of forecasting value is more accurate and effective compared to the actual value and forecast the logistics demand in the future which is within the region.

关 键 词：物流需求量预测 多元线性回归模型 EVIEWS软件 

分 类 号：F251.2[经济管理—国民经济]