两岸经贸、产业结构与经济周期协动性——基于VECM模型的实证分析  

Cross-strait Trade,Industry Structure and Business Cycle Co-movement:Empirical Analysis with VECM Model

作　　者：邓利娟[1] 范芹[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学台湾研究院,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《南京审计学院学报》2014年第2期31-38,共8页journal of nanjing audit university

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(09BJL057);2013年中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2013221020)

摘　　要：在相关理论和两岸经贸发展特点的基础上,分析两岸经济周期协动性的传递因素和机制,实证研究两岸贸易强度、直接投资强度和产业结构相似度与经济周期协动性的因果关系,结果显示:虽然两岸贸易与台商投资是两岸经贸往来的主要形式,但这对两岸经济周期协动性的变化并未产生直接作用,说明两岸之间并未形成实质性的经济互动;产业结构相似度是两岸经济周期协动性变化的主要原因,这预示随着两岸经贸的密切发展、产业合作的深入进行和大陆产业结构的升级,两岸经济结构特征逐渐趋同且紧密联接。Based on the relevant theory and the characteristics of cross-strait business econmy and trade development,the pa- per analyzes the transmission factors and mechanism of cross-strait business cycle co-movements and it also makes an empirical study on the relationship between the intensity of cross-strait trade, direct investment and industry struckure similarity and busi- ness cycle co-movements. The results show that there exists a long-term equilibrium relationship among four variables, and in- dustry structure is the main reason of the business cycle co-movements. Trade and direct investment have a significant impact on the business cycle co-movements only together with industry structure ,which shows that there is no substantial economic in- teraction between cross-strait economy.

关 键 词：两岸经贸往来 经济周期协动性 产业结构相似度 两岸经济合作 贸易强度 直接投资强度 两岸经济一体化 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]