不同草地资源水平牧户对气候变化的感知与偏差途径  

The bias of herders' perception to climate change and its deviant path at different grassland resources levels

作　　者：李西良[1] 侯向阳[1] 丁勇[1] 李平[1] 刘志英[1] 吴新宏[1] 尹燕亭[1] 萨茹拉[1] 任卫波[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院草原研究所欧亚温带草原研究中心,内蒙古呼和浩特010010

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2014年第4期1080-1088,共9页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70933004;71103185;71311120089);国家国际重大科技合作项目(2013DFR30760);国家科技支撑计划课题(2012BAD13B07);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金(1610332013007)

摘　　要：人群感知是气候变化适应行为形成的重要信息基础,基于对中国北方草地草甸草原、典型草原、荒漠草原、草原化荒漠、沙地、农牧交错带等地区1292个牧户的问卷访谈,分2轮调查研究了不同草地类型地区牧民对气候变化的感知,与气候实值比较分析,并研究了牧民气候变化感知的偏差途径,结果表明：1980-2009年间研究区温度变化倾向率为0.63℃/10a（P〈0.01）,升高显著,而降水变化不明显（-8.48mm/10a,P〉0.05）；温度较强的趋势性与牧民对其感知的分歧存在偏差,降水无明显变化与不同地区牧民感知明确的趋势性判断存在偏差；受草场变化等环境信息的传导是气候变化感知偏差形成的重要原因,其中,降水感知与环境感知之间具有较强的关系,存在明显的传导过程,而温度感知的传导性不明显；通过Probit模型分析显示,气候变化传导感知与否主要与牧户距离行政中心距离、户主年龄、教育背景、载畜水平、草畜资源等因素有关.Perception is an important information basic of human adaptation to climate change. We researched herders’ perception to climate change and its deviant path at different grassland resources levels, which included 1292households in northern grassland of China such as meadow steppe, typical steppe, desert steppe, steppe desert, sand land and agro-pastoral area. The temperature was significantly rise by 0.63℃/10a （P〈0.01） in 1980-2009. However, there was no significant change about precipitation （-8.48mm/10a,P〉0.05）. Majority of respondents considered precipitation have been deceasing in past 30years, whereas no significant difference was detected by actual precipitation data. Unlike precipitation perception, herders had no clear judgment to temperature change. The conduction of pasture information was an important reason of herders’ bias in climate change. Precipitation but temperature had a good relationship to herders’ climate change perception. Climate conduction perception was influenced by the distances to administration center, the householder age, educational background, carrying level, grassland-livestock resources and so on.

关 键 词：气候变化适应性 北方草原 感知-适应 家庭牧场 

分 类 号：X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]