基于阈值分析法的江淮流域汛期极端强降水变化特征分析  

Study on Variation Characteristics of Extreme Strong Precipitation in Jiang-Huai River Basin during the Flood Season by Threshold Analysis

作　　者：吴丹[1] 黄乾[2] 刘鹏飞[1] 于芳健 冯雪菲[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省朝阳市气象局,辽宁朝阳122000 [2]南京信息工程大学大气物理学院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2014年第10期3030-3033,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：利用1951～2004年江淮流域91个测站汛期(5～9月)的逐日降水资料,采用阈值分析方法来确定强降水的阈值,对强降水阈值和日数的空间分布特征进行分析。结果表明,江淮流域中西部地区强降水阈值总体呈南高北低的分布特征,东部地区呈南高-中低-北高的分布特征;54年间江淮流域有4个年际变化突出的区域;强降水日数总体上呈南高北低的趋势,且54年的年际变化不明显。Based on 1951 -2004 daily precipitation data of 91 stations during the flood season（May-September） in Jiang-Huai area of China, the extreme strong precipitation was defined by percentile threshold method. The spatial distribution characters of extreme strong precipitation threshold and the number of precipitation days was analyzed, it was obtained that distribution characteristics of strong precipitation threshold in central and western regions were high-low from south to north, while the easten was high-low-high distribution from south to north. During 54 years, there were four prominent regions with annual changes. The trend of extreme strong precipitation threshold was high-low from south to north. The annual chane of 54 years was not obvious.

关 键 词：江淮流域 极端降水 阈值分析法 汛期 变化特征 

分 类 号：S161.6[农业科学—农业气象学]