温州地区台风引发地质灾害影响因子分析  

Analysis on Factors of Geological Hazard Induced by Typhoon in Wenzhou

作　　者：薛源[1,2,3] 赵其华[2] 

机构地区：[1]数学地质四川省重点实验室,四川成都610059 [2]地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室,四川成都610059 [3]成都理工大学管理科学学院,四川成都610059

出　　处：《灾害学》2014年第2期72-76,共5页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40772177);数学地质四川省重点实验室开放基金(scsxdz2011014)

摘　　要：为定量评价各影响因子对台风引发地质灾害的贡献程度,获得此类地质灾害的发生机理,采用Logistic回归模型对台风引发地质灾害的影响因子进行分析。以浙江温州地区为研究区,选取样本点特征因子、台风特征因子以及样本点与其影响台风相对位置因子等3类影响因子,建立相应的回归模型,并对模型中得到的各项参数进行综合分析,得出研究区台风引发地质灾害的敏感因素和预测判定方程。结果表明采用Logistic回归模型具有较高的可信度,为台风条件下斜坡稳定性的评价预测提供了可靠依据及有效可行的途径和方法。For quantitatively evaluating the contributed extent of factors influenced geological hazard induced by typhoon and acquiring the mechanism of this kind of geological hazard, Logistic regression are used to analyze the factors. Wenzhou in Zhejiang is chosen as a research area. The regression model is built that in independent variables are three kinds of factors ： characteristic factors of sample, characteristic factors of typhoon, relative posi- tion between sample and typhoon. All of parameters from this model are comprehensive analyzed and sensitivity fac- tors and equation for forecasting and deciding of geological hazard induced by typhoon in research area are ac- quired. It is concluded that the Logistic regression model is more dependable. The result has provided dependable information, effective way and method for evaluating and forecasting stability of slope on the condition of typhoon.

关 键 词：地质灾害 影响因子 台风 LOGISTIC回归 温州地区 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学] P642.2