农业劳动力流出最优点、农民荒与粮食安全  

The Optimal Agricultural Labor Force Outflow,Farmer Shortage and Food Security

作　　者：韩占兵[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学工商管理学院,湖北武汉430073 [2]黄淮学院经济管理系,河南驻马店463000

出　　处：《华南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2014年第2期32-40,共9页Journal of South China Agricultural University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71341019);河南省政府决策研究招标课题(2013B220);河南省软科学研究计划项目(132400410012);河南省教育厅人文社科项目(2013-QN-227);中南财经政法大学研究生创新教育计划项目(2013B0817)

摘　　要：以二元经济理论和新古典经济学理论为依托,构建了农业劳动力流出对粮食产出影响的理论模型,提出了农业劳动力流出最优点的研究假设,并运用面板数据进行了实证检验。研究得出,中国东部和中部区域正处于二元经济结构转换中期,农业劳动力流出数量已经越过农业劳动力流出最优点,对粮食安全构成了直接威胁;而西部区域正处于二元经济结构转换初期,农业劳动力流出数量还未到达农业劳动力流出最优点,存在着过剩的农业劳动力。The paper builds a theoretical model of the outflow of agricultural labor effecting grain output , using the dual economic theory and neoclassical economic theory as the basis;and proposes the hypothe-sis of the optimal agricultural labor force outflow;and then takes an empirical test by using the panel data econometric model .The study found that , the eastern and central regions of China are in the mid-term of dual economic structure to convert;and the number of agricultural labor outflow has crossed the optimal agricultural labor force outflow , which constitutes a direct threat on food security .While the western re-gion is in the preliminary stage of dual economic structure to convert;and the number of agricultural la-bor outflow has not yet reached the optimal agricultural labor force outflow and there exist surplus of agri -cultural labor .

关 键 词：农业劳动力流出 C-D生产函数 粮食安全 农民荒 

分 类 号：F304.6[经济管理—产业经济]