人民币汇率变动对我国出境旅游市场的影响——基于1997-2012年数据的实证研究  

The Impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on China's outbound tourism ——Based on empirical research data for the year 1997-2012

作　　者：许贵福[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建船政交通职业学院公共教学部,福建福州350007

出　　处：《新余学院学报》2014年第2期28-31,共4页Journal of Xinyu University

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目<人民币汇率变动对我国价格水平的传递效应研究>(11YJA790048)

摘　　要：本研究选取1997-2012年度数据,运用协整与误差修正模型考察了人民币汇率变化对我国出境旅游的影响。结果表明,我国出境旅游人数与人民币兑美元汇率、城镇居民可支配收入之间有长期均衡关系,边际弹性为正,人民币兑美元汇率每升值1%会导致我国出境旅游人数增加3.73%,城镇居民可支配收入每提高1%会促使出境旅游人数增长2.27%。但在短期城镇居民可支配收入对我国出境旅游人数的影响不显著,人民币汇率变化对我国出境旅游短期影响要小于长期影响。This study selected 1997 -2012 annual data, cointegration and error correction model to examine impact of the RMB ex- change rate changes on the China＇s outbound tourism. The results showed that the number of China＇s outbound tourism had long - term e- quilibrium relationship with the RMB against the U.S. dollar and the disposable income of urban residents and the marginal elasticity was positive and that the 1% appreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar led to the increase of China＇s outbound tourist by 3.73% and 1% increase of the urban residents disposable income led to 2.27% increase of outbound tourism growth. But in the short- term impact of urban residents＇disposable income on China＇s outbound tourism was not significant and the short - term effects of RMB ex- change rate changes on China＇s outbound tourism was less than the long- term effects.

关 键 词：人民币汇率 出境旅游 误差修正模型 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]