2013年生猪市场分析及2014年展望  

China's Pig Market in 2013 and Its Prospect in 2014

作　　者：陈艳丽[1] 

机构地区：[1]农业部农村经济研究中心,北京100810

出　　处：《农业展望》2014年第3期25-29,33,共6页Agricultural Outlook

摘　　要：2011—2012年,养猪业产能急剧扩张,2012年产能过剩局面在2013年全面显现。2013年春节后国内猪价3个月下跌近三成,创2010年8月中旬以来最低水平。受政府收储、养殖户惜售等影响,生猪淡季供应量出现阶段性减少,猪价"淡季不淡",中秋节连续上涨回升三成。节后猪肉供应充足,需求反弹力度有限,猪市承压弱势波动。2013年11月中旬开始为期1个月的阶段性小幅攀升,12月下旬,由于疫情导致恐慌性抛售,屠宰企业压价等导致出栏量大且集中,猪肉投放轮库、暖冬推迟腊肉制作、需求高峰时间缩短等导致生猪价格开始暴跌,并一直持续至春节后,10年来首次出现旺季亏损。猪价短期反弹无力,2014年或迎上行周期。随着生猪饲养方式的不断转变和产业结构调整,生猪养殖规模化、标准化发展步伐逐步加快,生猪养殖已进入微利时代。The dramatic increasing capacity of pig industry from 2011 to 2012 has led to a full appearance of production overcapacity situation in 2013. Domestic pig price decreased 30% in 3 months after 2013 Spring Festival, which hit a record since mid-August 2010. Affected by government procurement and farmer hoarding, live pig supply decreased periodically in slack season, while pig price was remarkable with 30% consecutive rebound in the Mid-Autumn Festival. Under the pressure of adequate pork supply and limited demand increase, pig price fluctuated weakly after the Mid-Autumn Festival. Then pig price rose slightly over a month in mid-November 2013, from late December, pig price started to decline greatly and lasted long after 2014 Spring Festival owing to a series of factors, such as panic underselling caused by epidemic situation, substantial and centralized slaughter because of slaughtering enterprises squeezing down price, marked decline price of live pig due to inventory rotation of pork, postponement of bacon making in green winter and shrinkable time of peak demand, then loss of pig industry emerged in boom season firstly in the recent decade. Look forward to the future, pig price will rebound weakly in a short time, maybe meet an upswing cycle in 2014. With the constant changing of pig feeding mode and adjustment of industrial structure, the pace of large-scale pig fanning and standardized development are speeding up, and pig breeding is entering into the era of low profit.

关 键 词：生猪市场 猪粮比价 能繁母猪存栏 猪肉价格 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]