基于DSGE模型的中国货币政策规则适用性研究  

Study on the applicability of China's monetary policy rules base on DSGE model

作　　者：叶娅芬[1] 曹慧[2] 梁姣[2] 周明华[2] 袁教育 

机构地区：[1]浙江工业大学之江学院,浙江杭州310024 [2]浙江工业大学理学院,浙江杭州310023 [3]华龙碧水幼儿园,浙江杭州310052

出　　处：《浙江工业大学学报》2014年第2期225-230,共6页Journal of Zhejiang University of Technology

基　　金：浙江省教育厅科研资助项目(Y201225256);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(13YJC910011);浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(LQ12A01021)

摘　　要：采用宏观经济分析的主流工具DSGE模型研究小型开放经济条件下中国货币供应量规则和利率规则的适用性,模型参数估计借助贝叶斯估计方法,货币政策规则影响效果采用MCMC模拟技术.研究结果发现:中国货币供应量规则和利率规则各具优势,并且两者具有很强的内生联动性,货币供应量的增长导致利率的上升.由此可见:当前货币供应量规则不宜由利率规则完全取代,中国应坚持两种规则并用的复合规则体系,从而为央行做出相关决策提供量化支持.The dynamic stochastic general equilibrium（DSGE） model was employed to study the applicability of China＇s money supply rule and interest rate rule under the condition of a small open economy. The model was estimated by employing Bayesian methods and the effect of the policy rules was analyzed based on MCMC simulation technology. The results indicate that China＇s money supply rule and interest rate rule have their own advantages respectively. They have a strong endogenous linkage, money supply growth leads to a rise in interest rate. Therefore, money supply rule should not be replaced by the interest rate rule absolutely, China should adhere to the complex system of rules, which provides quantitative support for the central bank to make the relevant decision-making.

关 键 词：DSGE模型 货币供应量规则 利率规则 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]