用趋势季节模型对出院人数进行统计预测  

Seasonal Trend Model in Forecasting the Number of Discharged Patients

作　　者：程华玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省句容市人民医院信息科,江苏句容212400

出　　处：《临床医学工程》2014年第4期526-527,共2页Clinical Medicine & Engineering

摘　　要：目的建立趋势季节模型,预测医院2013、2014年各季度出院人次。方法运用移动平均趋势剔除法配合最小二乘法建立线性模型,并对模型进行回归分析。结果趋势季节回归模型YC=3 742.5+592.9t,预测值=季平均预测值×各季的季节比率。结论趋势季节模型简便易行,预测效果好。可为医院制定工作计划和决策提供可靠的依据,实现卫生资源的优化配置。Objective To establish a seasonal trend model to forecast the number of discharged patients in different seasons in 2013 and 2014. Methods A linear model was made by combining moving average trend removal method and least square method to establish, to which regression analysis was applied. Results The seasonal trend regression model was Yc = 3 742.5 ＋ 592.9t, and the predictive value equaled to the seasonal average predictive value times the seasonal rate. Conclusions The seasonal trend model is simple, convenient and easy to conduct, with good predictive efficacy. Forecasting the number of discharged patients can supply reliable data to the leaders to draw up plans, make decisions and optimize the sanitary resources.

关 键 词：趋势季节模型 预测 出院人数 

分 类 号：R197.32[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]