中国现存股票市场条件下的养老保险最优规模研究--养老保障投资私人化还是保险社会化  

Study on the Optimum Scale of Chinese Pension Insurance at the Existing Stock Market Conditions——Pension Investment in Privacy or Social Insurance

作　　者：王增文[1,2] Antoinette Hetzler 

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学公共管理学院 [2]城市发展研究院,南京210023 [3]Lund大学社会学系,swenden22100

出　　处：《软科学》2014年第4期33-37,共5页Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71073052);江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目;江苏省“青蓝工程”资助项目;江苏省“333”工程资助项目

摘　　要：通过优化世代交叠模型,分析了中国养老保险制度对产品市场、资本市场和消费者福利状况的影响效应。研究结果显示,适当减少养老保险制度缴费率能够给中国资本带来集聚效应,并且能够显著地提升其价格和工资,最终会增加产品的产出。通过差异化的福利标准分析了养老保险的最优规模,从长期的最优社会效应和时间的连续性来看,养老保险制度会存在一个最优的社会缴费率。这个缴费率确定了养老保险在目前股票市场条件下的最优规模。在此基础上,探讨了养老保险是否私有化的问题,并给出了存续条件。Through the optimization of overlapping generation model, this paper analyzes the effect of Chinese pension insur- ance system influencing on product market, capital market and consumer＇ s welfare state. The results shows that the appro- priate reduction to the system of endowment insurance payment rate to Chinese capital will bring agglomeration effect and it can significantly improve their prices and wages, which will eventually increase product output. It analyzes the optimal scale of endowment insurance through welfare standard differentiation. From the point of view of continuous long-term optimal so- cial effect and time, it finds the endowment insurance system that exist an optimal social contribution rate. The contribution rate determines the optimum scale in the current stock market under the conditions of the endowment insurance. On this ba- sis, it discusses whether the old-age insurance privatization is preferable. Finally it gives the existence conditions.

关 键 词：养老保险最优规模 社会最优化 资本积聚 缴费率 动态最优化 

分 类 号：F830.91[经济管理—金融学]