金融危机原因反思:伯南克的谬误  

Refl ections on the Causes of the Financial Crisis: Bernanke's Fallacy

作　　者：俞乔[1] 范翰文 吴洵[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《金融监管研究》2014年第4期14-31,共18页Financial Regulation Research

摘　　要：关于本次金融危机发生的原因,学术界存在一个重大争议:它是由资本主义中心地区的机制缺陷与货币政策失误导致的,还是由全球贸易不平衡和全球储蓄过剩引发的?本文围绕伯南克的全球储蓄过剩假说,对这次金融危机的原因进行了深入分析。研究表明,伯南克依据泰勒规则论述美联储货币政策合理性时,存在系数先验给定、使用数据有偏等问题;其关于宽松货币政策与房价上涨无关的证据,存在数据跨期不等等缺陷,模型修正后得出的结论恰好相反。此外,美联储的货币政策并不是被动地受国外因素影响,其对美国国内宏观经济状况变化的反应灵敏,而对国外储蓄变化的灵敏度较低。最后,历史证据也表明,美国在制定货币政策过程中,关注的核心是美国国内宏观经济状况,而非全球不平衡问题。本文的研究对于厘清金融危机原因,改进货币政策实施和预防未来危机爆发,具有重要意义。This paper studies the causes of the recent financial crisis via reflecting ＂global saving glut hypothesis＂ raised by Bernanke. The paper shows that the empirical test based on the Taylor rule by Bernanke was flawed with pre-assigned parameters together with biased inflation data, so that the results may be misleading. Moreover, the cross-country data used to prove the insignificant relationship between ease monetary policy and housing bubble suffered a mismatch problem. When it is corrected, the conclusion is just opposite. The paper further provides empirical evidence to suggest that the US Fed monetary policy is much more sensitive to the domestic macroeconomic environment than foreign external savings. Finally, the paper discovers historical evidence from the US Fed annual reports and OMPC minutes, indicating that focal issues of the US monetary policy are by no means global imbalances but domestic matters. This study sheds some new lights on deep understanding of the financial crisis.

关 键 词：全球储蓄过剩 货币政策 金融危机 

分 类 号：F833.05[经济管理—金融学]