1961年-2010年黄淮海地区热带气旋暴雨特征研究  

Analysis on Characteristics of Tropical Cyclone Rainstorms in Huang-Huai-Hai Area from 1961 to 2010

作　　者：赵静[1,2] 严登华[2] 鲁帆[2] 胡勇[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]东华大学环境科学与工程学院,上海201620 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100038

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2014年第2期1-5,10,共6页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51109224);国家重点基础研究发展计划课题(2010CB951102);"十二五"国家科技支撑计划课题(2012BAC19B03)

摘　　要：利用黄淮海地区61个气象站点逐日降水数据及《热带气旋年鉴》等资料,采用回归分析和Arcgis空间分析方法分析研究区域热带气旋及热带气旋暴雨的频次和强度等特征。结果表明:黄淮海地区热带气旋多于8月登陆于浙闽沿海,登陆强度大,以北上类路径类型为主;总体来说,黄淮海地区热带气旋暴雨发生频率小,以非热带气旋暴雨为主,但热带气旋暴雨强度大,平均暴雨量为93.2mm,接近大暴雨级别;黄淮海地区热带气旋暴雨频次及雨量时空分布不均衡。黄淮海地区热带气旋暴雨频次和暴雨量均有增加趋势,东部沿海及中西部地区受热带气旋影响明显,发生热带气旋暴雨频次高,平均暴雨量较大。此外,热带气旋暴雨频次分布具有自东向西带状递减趋势,而雨量分布的带状特征不明显。Based on the daily rainfall data at 61 stations in the Huang-Huai-Hai area from 1961 to 2010 and the data of 《Tropical Cyclone Yearbook》 ,the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclone and tropical cyclone rainstorm were analyzed using the meth-ods of regression analysis and ArcGIS spatial analysis .The results showed that the tropical cyclone in the Huang-Huai-Hai re-gion usually lands intensely in the coastal place of Zhejiang and Fujian in August with the type of northward class path .Overall , the tropical cyclone rainstorm of the Huang-Huai-Hai area accounts for a small proportion of the total storm ,but it has high in-tensity and the average amount of tropical cyclone rainstorm reaches 93 .2 mm ,which is similar to the heavy rainstorm .The temporal and spatial distribution of the frequency and amount of tropical cyclone rainstorm are both unbalanced .The frequency and intensity of tropical cyclone rainstorm in the Huang-Huai-Hai region increases in recent years ,and the east coast and central and western regions are most likely influenced by tropical cyclone with high frequency and heavy rainstorm .In addition ,the fre-quency of tropical cyclone rainstorm shows a decreasing trend from east to west on the whole ,but the distribution of rainstorm quantity is no t apparent .

关 键 词：黄淮海地区 热带气旋 暴雨 统计分析 频次特征 强度特征 变化趋势 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]