山东省2001年―2010年用水趋势与影响因素分析  

Analysis of Water Consumption Trend and Its Impact Factors from 2001 to 2010 in Shandong Province

作　　者：张瑞她[1] 张庆华[1] 蒋磊[1] 翟兴涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学水利土木工程学院,山东泰安271018

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2014年第2期37-40,共4页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项经费(201201022)

摘　　要：准确分析用水量影响因素和科学预测用水量,对于实现水资源的优化配置,缓解经济增长与水资源日趋尖锐的矛盾,具有十分重要的意义。通过对山东省2001年-2010年用水量进行分析,得到如下结论:用水结构中生产用水所占比例最大,其次为生活用水,生态用水最小,总用水量中第一产业用水比例最大,接近75%(占总用水量);总用水量自2005年后总体上呈缓慢上升趋势,第二产业用水量呈下降趋势,第三产业、生活用水量年际变化不大,生态用水量呈上升趋势;影响用水量的主要因素包括三次产业产值、灌溉面积和人口,降雨量对第一产业用水有一定影响。Accurate analysis of the impact factors of water consumption and scientific prediction of water consumption are of im-portant significance to achieve the optimal allocation of water resources and alleviate the contradiction between economic growth and water resources .Water consumption of Shandong Province was analyzed from 2001 to 2010 .The results showed that the in-dustrial water consumption accounts for the largest proportion in the water consumption structure ,followed by domestic water consumption and ecological water consumption .The first industrial water consumption accounted for 75% of total water con-sumption ,which was the largest proportion The total water consumption showed a slow increasing trend since 2005 ,while the second industrial water consumption showed a decreasing trend .The variations of third industrial water consumption and do-mestic water consumption were insignificant ,while the ecological water consumption showed an increasing trend .The main fac-tors affecting water consumption included the output value of three industries ,irrigated area ,and population .In addition ,rainfall has a certain impact on the first industrial water consumption .

关 键 词：用水量 用水结构 用水趋势 用水影响因素 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源] F323.213[经济管理—产业经济]