中国现阶段环境约束下的适度经济增长率研究——基于废气排放量视角的分析  

Researching on Moderate Economic Growth under the Environmental Restriction in China:The Analysis Based on Exhaust Emissions

作　　者：李宝瑜[1] 刘洋[1] 

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学统计学院,山西太原030006

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2014年第4期23-29,共7页Journal of Statistics and Information

摘　　要：经济发展与环境污染的关系历来都是一对不可回避的矛盾,也是学术界研究的热点,国内外大多数学者都在考察人均GDP与环境污染的库兹涅茨曲线,但对于环境与经济增长率的关系却很少有人研究。首先建立环境变量与经济增长率关系的变参数状态空间模型,并将建立的状态空间模型转化成线性规划中的决策方程,之后应用参数区间估计和集合论两种方法,通过约束相应的变量及变量的系数来估计中国现阶段环境约束下的适度经济增长率。The relationship between economic development and environmental pollution has always been one pair of unavoidable conflicts, which is also the academic research focus, the majority of domestic and foreign scholars have been paid their attention on the study of the environmental Kuznets curve, but the relationship between environment and economic growth always be ignored. In this paper, we firstly establish the time-varying parameter state space model of the relationship between environment and economic growth, and transformed the time-varying parameter state space model into a decision-making equation of linear programming, and then we apply the methods of interval estimation of parameters and set theory to estimate China＇s current optimal economic growth under the environmental constraints by constraining the variables and coefficient. At last we get the range of optimal economic growth which is between 3% and 5%.

关 键 词：适度经济增长 环境约束 状态空间模型 线性规划模型 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]