新的WBO算子及其在城市道路网交通事故预测中的应用研究  

New Weakening Buffer Operator and Its Application in Forecasting Traffic Accidents of Road Network of Urban Agglomeration

作　　者：王宏[1] 王冬冬[1] 崔杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]淮阴工学院经济管理学院,淮安223001

出　　处：《价值工程》2014年第14期3-4,共2页Value Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71301060);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金(12YJA630122)

摘　　要：以有效提高系统特征数据序列的光滑性为目的,在已有缓冲算子研究的基础上,根据新息优先原理,构建了一个新的WBO(Weakening Buffer Operator),克服了现有算子对新信息利用不充分的缺陷,并通过城市道路网交通事故预测案例与已有的系列WBO进行了弱化效果的比较。研究结果表明,受扰动因素冲击后的系统特征序列经新WBO作用后,建模精度得到了显著提高。The aim of this paper is to advance the smoothing of original data sequence. According to the theory of prior using of new information, based on the present theories of buffer operators and some already existed weakening buffer operators, a new weakening buffer operator is established. Meanwhile, it is compared with the existed weakening buffer operators in effectiveness through traffic accident prediction of urban road network. The contradictions between quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis in pretreatment for vibration data sequences is resolved effectively. The research shows that the new weakening buffer operator increases the forecast precision of grey forecast model remarkably.

关 键 词：灰色系统 GM(1  1) WBO 建模精度 

分 类 号：U491.3[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]