海事气象保障服务现状及发展趋势  

Present State and Development Trend of Maritime Meteorological Support Service

作　　者：刘大刚[1] 吴彬贵[2] 解以扬[2] 罗红红[3] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航海学院,辽宁大连116026 [2]天津市气象局,天津300457 [3]中国科学技术信息研究所,北京100038

出　　处：《中国航海》2014年第1期131-135,共5页Navigation of China

基　　金：国家公益性行业科研专项项目(GYHY201006034);天津市海洋局科技兴海项目(KJXH2012-25)

摘　　要：为进一步提高国内海事气象保障服务水平,使其能够在海运、港口管理和海上作业等方面起到更好的规避风险、提高效益的作用,通过深入调研,指出国内海事气象保障服务存在着精细化程度不够、缺乏深度开发和可视化服务产品,水文气象要素预报的概率形式制作和相应海事气象保障服务产品开发及应用方面存在严重不足等问题;分析国内外中尺度风浪数值预报模式的研发,概率形式天气预报结果的应用以及风险分析、风险决策理论和技术等方面的研究进展和发展趋势;提出中国近海气象保障服务的潜在需求,可为中国海事气象保障服务的升级换代提供一些参考思路。In order to upgrade the maritime meteorological support service in China and make it play better roles in helping maritime operation avoiding risks and improving efficiencies of shipping, port management and operations at sea, based on the iwdepth research about the current situation of maritime meteorological support services, the things needing improving are pointed out which include customized services, in depth service development, visual- ized information products, probability weather forecast and related products. The advances in numerical forecast models for mesoscale wind and wave at home and abroad are reviewed; the application of weather probability fore- cast as well as the research progress and development trend in risk analysis/decision-making theory and practices are introduced. The potential demands in China for offshore meteorological support service is suggested for upgrading and updating the marine meteorological support service.

关 键 词：水路运输 海上交通安全 海事气象保障 专业气象服务 风险分析 动态显示 

分 类 号：U676.1[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]