基于层次熵权和AHP方法的灾害应急演练综合评价  

A comprehensive evaluation method for disaster emergency drills based on hierarchical entropy weight & AHP

作　　者：易涛[1] 朱群雄[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京化工大学信息科学与技术学院,北京100029

出　　处：《计算机与应用化学》2014年第4期401-405,共5页Computers and Applied Chemistry

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61104131);北京市自然科学基金(4142039)

摘　　要：针对应急救援的特殊性(主观性与客观性、确定性与不确定性的混合),为实现应急演练过程与结果的有效评价,建立了一种主客观混合的层次评价体系。首先,分析"负面事件"信息熵和复杂网络各项测度等应急演练评价指标的合理性,指出应急演练评价的特殊性。用传统单一评价方法已经无法满足需求。其次,在分析经典熵权法不足的基础上,构造并分析了层次熵权法并给出核心的算法步骤;分析了层次熵权法和AHP方法的优缺点和各自的特点,并构造了基于层次熵权法和AHP方法的混合评价体系模型、给出了融合算法中修正值的计算方法。最后,运用本文提出的方法对化工厂应急演练中各项指标进行分析建模,通过一个应用案例证明了该混合评价方法的可行性与有效性。本文为应急演练过程与结果的有效评价提供新的方法。A kind of comprehensive Evaluation hierarchical method for process and results of emergency drills is proposed based on hierarchical entropy weight and analytic hierarchy process （AHP） to solve the problem of emergency rescue （which has character of mixing subjectivity with objectivity, and certainty with uncertainty）. Based on analyzing measures of ＇negative events＇ information entropy and complex network, the specificity of emergency drills and rationality of measures were led firstly; it is difficult to fulfill requirements of evaluation using single method. Then, after analyzing shortcomings of classical entropy weight method, the hierarchical entropy weight method was constructed and the process of core arithmetic was created; based on analysis of features, advantages and disadvantages of hierarchical entropy weight and AHP, a comprehensive evaluation method based on two methods was created and amend parameter in fusion algorithm is also proposed. At last, measures for emergency drills in chemical plant were concluded and modeled using method of this paper; a case of evaluation for process and results of an emergency drill validates the practice and validity of comprehensive method. It is the new approach for emergency drills evaluation.

关 键 词：分层熵权评价法 AHP分析法 灾害复杂网络测度 应急演练 综合评价 

分 类 号：TQ015.9[化学工程] TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]