全球常规油气资源评价及潜力分析  

Global conventional oil &gas resource assessment and its potential

作　　者：田作基[1] 吴义平[1] 王兆明[1] 侯平[1] 边海光[1] 李富恒[1] 陈明霜 余功铭 

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083 [2]中国石油经济技术研究院,北京100011

出　　处：《地学前缘》2014年第3期10-17,共8页Earth Science Frontiers

基　　金：国家油气重大专项(2011ZX05028-001);中国石油天然气股份有限公司重大科技专项(2013E-0501)

摘　　要：文中以成藏组合为评价单元,对不同勘探程度的评价单元(盆地),确定不同的资源评价方法和计算参数,采用蒙特卡罗法进行资源量汇总,评价出了全球主要含油气盆地(195个)的石油待发现资源量为8 620亿桶,待发现天然气资源量为4 765万亿立方英尺;研制了全球不同储量管理体系下的四种储量增长模型,计算了全球已发现油气田到2030年的储量值及增长量,预计到2030年全球石油剩余可采储量为2.82万亿桶,天然气剩余可采储量为10 460万亿立方英尺;评价结果表明,目前全球常规石油可采资源量为3.66万亿桶,天然气可采资源量为16 110万亿立方英尺;全球常规待发现油气资源在地域、国家、盆地类型、层系分布上极为不均衡。随着地质理论的不断丰富和勘探技术的进步,深海、超深海、北极海域和陆上难进入的沙漠、高寒等地区将成为未来的油气接替领域。For the first global conventional oil ＆ gas resource assessment plays are regarded as assessment units. Different assessment methods and calculating parameters are applied to assessment units （basins） according to the exploration degree. Then the amounts of resources are added up by using lhe Monte Carlo method, thus undiscovered oil resources of the main hydrocarbon basins （195 basins） in the world are up to 862 billion barrels and undiscovered gas resources are 4765 Tcf. According to the different global reserves management systems, four reserve-growth models are invented, in order to calculate reserves and their reserve growth of the global discovered oil ＆ gas fields up to 2030. By the year the global remaining recoverable oil reserves are expected to reach 2.82 trillion barrels, and the remaining recoverable gas reserves will also get up to 10460 Tcf. Furthermore results show that global recoverable conventional oil resources amount to 3.66 trillion barrels of recoverable, and recoverable conventional gas resources amount to 16110 Tcf. In terms of the regions, countries, basin types and strata, distribution of the global conventional oil ＆. gas resources is extremely uneven. With constant enrichment of geological theories and rapid development of exploralion technology, the deep water and ultra-deep-water, the Arctic waters, the inaccessible deserts, alpine region etc. will become alternative oil ＆ gas areas in the future.

关 键 词：资源评价 成藏组合 储量增长 油气分布 勘探潜力 

分 类 号：P618.13[天文地球—矿床学]