发现过程法估算油气资源量参数敏感性分析及取值优化  

Parameter sensitive analysis of using discovery process method to assess petroleum resources

作　　者：王兆明[1] 童晓光 张光亚[1] 温志新[1] 米石云[1] 耿长波[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083 [2]中国石油天然气勘探开发公司,北京100034

出　　处：《地学前缘》2014年第3期181-186,共6页Earth Science Frontiers

基　　金：国家油气重大专项(2011ZX05028);中国石油天然气股份公司重大科技专项(2013E-0501)

摘　　要：发现过程法是一种常用的油气资源评价方法,适用于高勘探程度的评价单元。由于其在评价过程中充分考虑了已发现油藏的规模及发现过程,并考虑了工程及技术原因对勘探发现过程的影响因素,因此该方法较合理可靠。文中使用PETRIMES软件,结合实例对该方法评价过程中的均值μ、方差σ2、油藏个数N及勘探效率系数β4个参数之间的影响以及对油气资源量计算结果的影响进行了分析,β对μ和σ2的影响以0.5为临界点;最终资源量大小随N值增加而线性增加,随μ、σ2的增加而呈e指数增加。参数的选择对于结果的影响很大,在选择参数时,应根据实际情况合理选择,并提出了合理优化计算参数的方法。Discovery process method is a commonly used petroleum resource assessment method, which adapt to high maturity exploration assessment units. As it fully considers the size and sequence of discovered fields, the influence of engineering and technology of the discovered fields, it is relatively reasonable. This article used PETRIMES software to analyze the mutual influence of mean, variance, field numbers, exploration efficiency coefficient, and how the four parameters to influence the assessment result of resources. The β takes 0. 5 as the critical point to influence the μ and σ2. The ultimate result of resources increases linearly with the N increase, and e-power with μ and σ2. The four parameters will dramatically influence the result, so we should reasonably choose result of parameters according to the actual instance. We also bring forward the method of reasonable selecting parameter.

关 键 词：油气资源评价 发现过程法 参数敏感性 统计法 油气资源量 

分 类 号：P618.13[天文地球—矿床学]