全球已知油气田储量增长研究  

Study on the reserve growth of known oil and gas fields in the world

作　　者：余功铭 徐建山 童晓光 陈明霜 

机构地区：[1]中石油经济技术研究院,北京100724 [2]中国石油天然气勘探开发公司,北京100034

出　　处：《地学前缘》2014年第3期195-200,共6页Earth Science Frontiers

基　　金：国家油气重大专项(2011ZX05028-001)

摘　　要：已知油气田的储量增长是指已发现油气田在评价、开发和开采的整个生命周期中可采储量的增加。近年来,已知油气田的储量增长在全球储量增长中的份额远大于新发现带来的储量增长,因此为了更准确地对全球已知油气田的储量增长进行分析预测,全面分析研究了全球主要油气区储量增长研究成果。研究表明,全球或区域已知油气田的储量增长预测均采用统计方法,用现有数据建立模型,使用模型对未来储量增长进行预测。研究发现,使用单一模型对全球所有地区已发现油气储量进行预测,某些地区的预测结果与其实际增长数据差异较大,而使用足够多的模型来预测又不现实。因此,提出根据不同储量的分类体系,应用改进的阿林顿方法建立储量增长模型,并使用模型对相应区域的储量增长进行预测,从而提高预测精度。以全球所有已知油气田为研究对象,研究其储量增长。研究结果表明,未来中东地区油气储量增长最多,其次是南美和非洲,欧洲增长量最少。The reserve growth of known oil and gas fields is referred to the additions of recoverable reserve in their whole life cycles of assessment, development and production. In recent years, it is found that the share of reserve growth from known oil and gas fields is more than newly discovered fields. In order to get more accuracy of reserve growth assessment, the research results of reserve growth in main oil and gas regions in the world are investigated, and it shows that statistical method is applied and available data are used to build model for reserve forecast. Based on one sole model forecasting for the whole fields in the world, great error appears in some oil-bearing provinces by checking investigation results, and it is impossible to forecast reserve growth by applying sufficient models. Therefore, on the basis of different reserve classification system, models are built by applying modified Arrington method to improve the forecasting accuracy. Targeting on all known oil and gas fields in the world, their reserve growth forecast is made, and forecasting results demonstrate that Middle East region is in the first place of reserve growth, followed by South America and Africa, and Europe is in the last place.

关 键 词：可采储量 储量增长 分类体系 预测模型 

分 类 号：P618.13[天文地球—矿床学]