循环经济项目投资决策的多阶段期权模型  

Multi-stage option model of investment decision-making of circular economy project

作　　者：王华[1] 卢萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳工业大学管理学院,沈阳110870

出　　处：《沈阳工业大学学报（社会科学版）》2014年第2期152-155,共4页Journal of Shenyang University of Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：辽宁省教育厅基金资助项目(2009jd54)

摘　　要：NPV法往往无法正确评价循环经济项目运作过程中的不确定性,而评价这种不确定性是有价值的。为研究循环经济项目的整体价值,在引入实物期权理论的基础上将整个循环经济项目投资分成多个阶段,分析循环经济项目的多阶段期权特性,即当每一阶段完成后,投资者就拥有了对后续阶段的投资期权。首先分析循环经济项目价值的内涵构成机理,然后在模型假设条件的基础上建立循环经济项目投资决策的多阶段期权模型,分别对每个阶段进行评估,从而确定项目的整体价值,为循环经济项目评估提供了一种新的思路。The NPV method can not be used to evaluate the uncertainty correctly during the operation of circular economy project, while the evaluation of the uncertainty is valuable. In order to study the overall value of circular economy project, the whole investment on circular economy project is devided into multiple stages based on introducing real option theory. The multi-stage option characteristics of circular economy projects are analyzed, namely, the investor owns investment option in subsequent phases after the completion of each stage. The connotation composing mechnism of the value of circular economy project is analyzed firstly, and then multi-stage option model of investment decision-making of circular economy project is established based on the hypothesis of the model. According to the evaluation of each stage, the overall value of the project is determined, which provides a new chain of thoughts of assessment of circular economy project.

关 键 词：循环经济 项目评价 投资决策 多阶段期权 实物期权 投资期权 净现值 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]