中国股票基金选股与择时能力实证研究  

The Empirical Research on Stock selecting and Timing Ability of China's Stock Fund

作　　者：刘微[1] 蒋先玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学,北京100029

出　　处：《西部金融》2014年第3期42-46,共5页West China Finance

摘　　要：基于开放式基金数据,我们系统分析了我国股票基金的选股与择时能力。经验研究显示,我国股票基金具有一定选股能力,但这种选股能力只在部分基金上表现显著,而股票基金的择时能力较差,整体组合和大部分基金择时能力贡献甚至为负。这与我国股票基金高换手率并不相称,这也意味着在目前基金投资管理水平下,被动式投资基金如指数基金产品将具有一定的市场需求和发展空间。Based on the open-end fund data, the paper systematically analyzes the stock selecting and timing ability of China＇s stock fund. The empirical research shows that China＇ s stock fund has the ability to select stocks, but the stock selecting ability per- forms significantly on the part of the funds, while the timing ability is weaker, and the contribution of the overall portfolio and timing ability is even negative. It means that the situation does not match with the high tumover rate of China＇s stock funds, and it also means that in the current level of the fund investment management, the passive investment funds such as index fund product will has certain market demand and development space.

关 键 词：股票基金 选股能力 择时能力 

分 类 号：F830.31[经济管理—金融学]