江苏旅游客流规模分布的时空变化特征  

Characteristics of Temporal-spatial Variation of Tourist Flow-size Distribution in Jiangsu Province

作　　者：胡章鸿[1,2] 段七零[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]扬州职业大学,江苏扬州225009 [2]扬州旅游发展研究中心,江苏扬州225009

出　　处：《地域研究与开发》2014年第2期99-105,121,共8页Areal Research and Development

基　　金：江苏省社会科学基金项目(13EYD034);江苏高校重点专业(群)"旅游管理及在线运营服务"建设项目

摘　　要：运用首位度、位次变化、齐夫定律、差异度,比较分析了江苏省2009—2012年国内及入境旅游客流规模分布的变化特征。国内旅游客流和入境旅游客流二者首位分布均不明显,但后者大于前者,且前者向扩散方向演变,后者向集中方向演变;二者均遵循齐夫定律,但前者为单分形,后者前6年为单分形,后8年则为双分形;前者先呈对数正态分布模式后呈帕雷托模式,后者前6年呈不规则帕雷托模式,后8年标度区一先呈不规则帕雷托模式后呈帕雷托模式,标度区二呈不规则帕雷托模式;前者规模变差呈现波动扩大态势,后者则呈波动缩小趋势;二者的差异度都不大,但后者大于前者,且差异度变化与各自Zipf参数变化趋势基本一致;区域经济发展、旅游资源、可进入性、服务设施、重大事件、客源地居民收入、旅游偏好等多种因素综合影响着江苏旅游客流规模分布的变化。By applying primacy index ,rank change ,Zipf rule and difference degree ,the characteristics of vari-ation of domestic and inbound tourist flow-size distribution in Jiangsu Province from 1999 to 2012 are comparatively studied in this paper .Both of their primacy distribution are not obvious ,but the latter is higher than the former ,and the former varies towards the direction of diffusion and the latter towards the direction of centralization;They both follow Zipf rule in each year ,and the former is a single fractal ,while the latter is a single fractal in the first 6 years and a double fractal in the late 8 years;The distribution pattern of the former changes from lognormal distribution model to Pareto model,while the latter is in irregular Pareto model in the first 6 years,and in the late 8 years non-scaling rangeⅠchanges from irregular Pareto model to Pareto model and non-scaling range Ⅱis in irregular Pareto model;The size gap of the former shows a fluctuation widening tendency , whereas the latter presents a fluctuation narrowing trend;Both of their difference degree are not big ,but the latter is higher than the former ,and variations of difference degree of the two have the similar tendency to their Zipf parameter;The variation of size distribution is a result of comprehensive influence of many factors such as regional economic development ,tourism resources ,the ac-cessibility,service facilities,mega-event,income of resident in tourist source ,traveling preference,and so on.

关 键 词：国内旅游客流 入境旅游客流 齐夫定律 江苏省 

分 类 号：K902[历史地理—人文地理学]