1951~2011年山西省极端气温变化基本特征研究  

Characterization of general change patterns of extreme temperature from 1951 to 2011 in Shanxi province,China

作　　者：牛旭[1] 严俊霞[1] 李洪建[1] 

机构地区：[1]山西大学黄土高原研究所,太原030006

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2014年第4期73-78,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家国际合作专项项目(0102012DFA20770);山西省自然基金项目(2012011033-5);国家自然基金项目(41201374;41130528)资助

摘　　要：根据1951~2011年山西省17个地面气象观测站的逐日平均气温及最高最低气温系列数据,采用百分比阈值法计算极端高、低温阈值,并对极端气温变化特征进行了分析。结果表明:1951~2011年山西省平均气温为9.37±1.6℃,距平值在-1.57℃^+1.58℃之间,以0.29℃/10a的速率在增加;极端高温均值为31.96±1.94℃,距平值在-1.80℃^+2.04℃之间,以0.16℃/10a的速率增加;年极端低温均值为-14.70±0.08℃,距平值在-0.92℃^+3.40℃之间,以0.62℃/10a的速率增加;全省17个地面站年极端高温阈值在30.09~36.94℃之间,年极端低温阈值在-9.85℃^-29.32℃之间。Based on the daily average temperature,maximum and minimum temperature series data recorded at 17 surface meteorological stations in Shanxi province from 1951 to 2011,using the percentage threshold value method,we calculated the extreme high and low temperature threshold,and conducted an investigation into extreme temperature variation characteristics by linear regression test method. The results showed that the average temperature from 1951 to 2011 was 9. 37 ± 1. 6℃,anomaly value was between1. 57℃ - ＋ 1. 58℃,and increased by 0. 29℃ /10a. The extreme high temperature was 31. 96 ± 1. 94 ℃,anomaly value was between1. 80℃ - ＋ 2. 04℃,and increased by 0. 16℃ /10a. The extreme low temperature was14. 70 ± 0. 08℃,anomaly value was between0. 92℃ - ＋ 3. 40℃,and increased by 0. 62℃ /10a. The extremely high threshold value varied between 30. 09℃ and 36. 94℃. The extreme low temperature threshold value varied between9. 85℃ and29. 32℃.

关 键 词：极端气温 线性回归 山西省 

分 类 号：P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]