阿勒泰地区冬季极端降雪事件变化特征分析  

The extreme winter snowfall events change characteristics in Aletai area

作　　者：张林梅[1,2] 张建[2] 李建丽[2] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院,兰州730002 [2]新疆阿勒泰地区气象局,阿勒泰836500

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2014年第4期89-95,共7页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家气象局公益性行业专项"新疆北部致灾暴雪成因分析和预报技术研究"(GYHY201106007)资助

摘　　要：利用阿勒泰地区7个测站1961-2011年冬季（11月到翌年3月）日降水资料,采用百分位定义法给出各站发生冬季极端降雪事件的阈值。采用气候趋势系数和气候倾向率,Gumbe分布函数及R/S分析等多种统计方法,分析阿勒泰地区冬季极端降雪事件的气候特征。结果表明：各站冬季极端降雪事件发生频次和强度的倾向率和趋势系数均呈正趋势,大部分站通过了显著性检验。冬季极端降雪事件强度与季极端降雪事件发生频次的中心不重合。根据拟合的Gumbel分布推求阿勒泰地区各站30a一遇冬季极端降水极值,为11-24mm,阿勒泰市、富蕴、青河站为大值区,福海站为小值区。根据R/S分析,阿勒泰地区冬季极端降雪事件频次与强度呈反持续性,即表明阿勒泰地区各站未来冬季极端降雪事件频次会减少,强度会减弱。Based on the daily precipitation data（ November to March） of 7 stations from 19612011 in Aletai area,we used percentile defining method to determined extreme winter snowfall event threshold for the stations. The climate tendency coefficient and climatic trend rate,Gumbe distribution function and R / S analysis and other statistical methods were used to analyze the winter snowfall climatic characteristics of extreme events. The results showed that the tendency and trend coefficients of the extreme winter snowfall event frequency and intensity showed positive trends,most stations passed significance test. Extreme winter snowfall event intensity and quaternary extreme snowfall event center did not coincide. According to the fitting of the Gumbel distribution in Aletai area,30a encounter extreme winter precipitation was 11 - 24mm,Aletai City,QingHe,and FuYun were for large values. According to the R / S analysis,the extreme winter snowfall event frequency and intensity showed antisustainability,indicating that in future the extreme winter snowfall event frequency will decrease,strength will reduce in Aletai region.

关 键 词：冬季极端降雪事件 Gumbel分布 R S分析 阿勒泰 

分 类 号：P426.63[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]