能源消费与经济增长非线性动态关系研究  

A nonlinear dynamic study of energy consumption and economic growth

作　　者：梁经纬[1] 刘金兰[1] 柳洲[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072 [2]天津大学科技与社会研究中心,天津300072

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2014年第5期1-6,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划子课题(2012BAC20B12-09-1)资助

摘　　要：利用两区制马尔科夫状态转移模型对我国1953-2008年的能源消费与经济增长相互关系进行刻画,结果表明:我国的能源消费与经济增长的相互关系呈现明显的动态区制转移和非对称性;在经济适速增长时期,能源消费与经济增长之间的关系符合增长理论;在经济快速增长时期,能源消费与经济增长之间符合反馈理论;脉冲响应函数分析表明能源消费与经济增长之间存在着长期的相互作用。In this paper,a two-region Markov state transition model was used to portray the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth from 1953 to 2008. The result shows that China＇s energy consumption and economic growth relationship presented significant dynamic regime switching and asymmetry features. In the period of rapid economic growth,the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth was fitted with the growth theory; in the period of rapid economic growth,the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth was fitted with the feedback theory. Impulse response function analysis showed that a long-term interaction existed between energy consumption and economic growth.

关 键 词：能源消费 经济增长 马尔科夫向量自回归 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]