黑龙江省农业投入对粮食单产影响的研究  

Effect of agricultural investment on grain yield in Heilongjiang province

作　　者：田媛媛[1] 石淑芹[1] 李正国[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]天津工业大学管理学院,天津300387 [2]农业部农业信息技术重点实验室,北京100081 [3]中国农科院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2014年第5期145-150,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41101537;40930101和71203157);国家重点基础研究发展计划973计划项目(2010CB951500);教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(10YJCZH129)资助

摘　　要：运用C-D生产函数,对黑龙江省农业投入与粮食单产进行弹性分析,以测定各投入要素对粮食单产的影响程度;进而基于县域统计数据,采用GWR模型并根据其回归系数,探讨各投入要素对单产影响的空间分异规律。结果表明:1)各农业投入要素弹性系数均大于0.005,对粮食单产均具有显著影响,贡献率大于30%的投入要素依次为农机总动力、有效灌溉面积以及化肥纯量;2)空间分异方面,除农机总动力与有效灌溉面积外,其他要素回归系数存在负值;各农业投入对粮食单产的影响存在显著的空间差异和方向性差异,回归系数绝对值普遍由平原区向山地丘陵区呈递减趋势,平原地区各县粮食单产受各投入要素正向影响主导,而山地丘陵地区受正向影响较弱,负向影响更为显著。With C-D production function,the output elasticity of agricultural inputs and grain yield in Heilongjiang Province were analyzed to determine the degree of influence of agricultural inputs on the grain yield,then based on the county level statistical data,with Geographically Weighted Regression model and the regression coefficients,the effects of spatial differentiation were explored. The results showed that： 1） The elasticity of agricultural input factors are greater than 0. 005,and all of them significantly affected the grain yield. Input factors with the contribution rate greater than 30% are followed by gross agricultural machinery,effective irrigation area and the amount of fertilizer application. 2） On the aspect of spatial differentiation,in addition to gross agricultural machinery and effective irrigation area,there exist negative regression coefficients for other elements. There are significant differences in the influence of spatial and directionality. Generally,the absolute value of the regression coefficients show a decreasing trend from the plains to the mountainous and hilly areas,counties grain yield of plain areas mainly are affected by the positive effect of the input elements,while the mountainous and hilly areas are affected by weak positive effect,negative effect is more significant.

关 键 词：农业投入 粮食生产 C-D函数 GWR 空间分析 黑龙江 

分 类 号：F307.1[经济管理—产业经济]