中国周边战略中的印度因素  

The India Factor in China's Peripheral Strategy

作　　者：赵干城[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海国际问题研究院亚太研究中心

出　　处：《国际展望》2014年第2期34-46,共13页Global Review

摘　　要：印度是中国西南周边最重要的近邻,其对中国周边战略的身份是综合性的,进而也是中国周边地区战略形势演变的一个常量,这既是由印度的巨大体量所决定,也源于中印整体关系特别是可能长期存在的边界纠纷,还体现在印度对中国与南亚次大陆国家间关系的影响上。但更重要的是,随着印度的快速崛起,其对中国周边战略产生的不可预测的影响正在迅速上升。印度作为中国周边战略形势演变的变量主要体现于三个方面,即中国对印度力量的评估、美国等大国对印度地位与作用的看法以及印度的自我定位都处于变动之中。需要指出的是,上述三大变量的最终驱动力主要来自印度的发展及印度由此增加的力量将用于何种战略目标。因此,印度的何种身份以及在哪些领域对中国而言更为重要,是中国对印度战略的重要决定因素。无论从哪个角度看,印度在可预见的未来都不大可能具有助力中国的正面意义,但中国仍需要从大局出发制定促进稳定的策略,同时也需要做两手准备。一方面印度应该被视为潜在的合作伙伴,中国应致力于促进和塑造与印度的战略合作伙伴关系;另一方面,亦有必要应对印度将中国视作主要对手而来的各种消极现象,全力遏制将中印关系导向对抗的趋势。As the most important neighbor on China's southwest periphery, India's identity is rather complex in China's neighborhood strategy, and it presents a constant factor in China's peripheral strategic situation. Such a prominent role not only comes from India's sheer size, but also stems from the overall relations between China and India, in particular from the longstanding border disputes, leaving a heavy stamp on China's relations with countries on the Indian subcontinent. Moreover, a rapid rising India is producing a growing unpredictable influence on China's peripheral strategy. India is also a variable in China's peripheral strategic situation in three senses: an evolutionary Chinese assessment of India's power, the changing U.S. and other nations' perceptions of India's role and influence, and India's dynamic self-identification. The driving force behind the three variables mainly comes from India's development and what strategic objective India intends to achieve with its incremental power. Therefore, India's identity and in which field it is strategically more influential to China is the defining factor in China's strategy towards India. In the foreseeable future, India seems unlikely to exert positive influence on China. Nonetheless, China still needs to make stability-promoting yet hedging policies. On the one hand, India should be regarded as a potential partner and China should make efforts to shape and promote the strategic partnership of cooperation with India. On the other hand, it is necessary to guard against negative incidents and events resulting from India's perception of China as a major peer competitor and contain the potential trend that may drive the bilateral relations towards confrontation.

关 键 词：中国外交 周边战略 印度 变量 

分 类 号：D822.335.1[政治法律—政治学]