资本管制的有效性：基于中国的指标体系分析  

Effectiveness of capital flow management and China＇s indicator system

作　　者：温军伟[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行货币政策二司 [2]中国社会科学院金融研究所

出　　处：《中国货币市场》2013年第10期13-18,共6页China Money

摘　　要：通过构建一个包括价格型指标和数量型指标在内的指标体系，文章力求全面准确地衡量中国资本管制的有效性。价格型指标包括抵补利率平价利差、内地与香港人民币利差和汇差、A股一H股溢价等；数量型指标包括外汇占款和不同口径下的“热钱”规模测算。综合来看，境内外尚不存在完全的套利渠道，中国资本管制仍有一定的作用，但近年来资本管制有效性也存在一定的下降趋势。建议改进资本流动管理方式，稳步推进人民币资本项目可兑换。Through establishing an indicator system comprising price-based indicator and quantity-based indicator, this article seeks to assess the effectiveness of China＇s capital flow management in a comprehensive and accurate manner. Price-based indicator includes covered interest parity spread, interest rate spread and exchange rate spread between RMB in Mainland and Hong Kong, premium of H shares over A shares, etc. Quantity-based indicator includes fund outstanding for foreign exchange and estimated scale of ＂hot money＂ by different approaches. In summary, there is no comprehensive hedging channel available throughout the market, capital control in China still plays a certain role, but the effectiveness of capital control in the recent years is decreasing. The article suggests improving capital flow management and promoting RMB capital account convertibility in a steady manner.

关 键 词：资本管制 价格型指标 数量型指标 

分 类 号：F832.63[经济管理—金融学]