对我国高速铁路客运量预测的探讨  

Study on Forecast of the Passenger Traffic Volume of High-Speed Railways

作　　者：冷俊峰[1] 陆凤山[1] 王美云[1] 

机构地区：[1]长沙铁道学院经济管理学院,湖南长沙410075

出　　处：《西南交通大学学报》2001年第1期88-91,共4页Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University

摘　　要：分析了客运量的影响因素、铁路客运在全国客运市场的地位 ,提出在市场经济条件下高速铁路客运量的预测方法 ,即先预测整个客运市场的客运量 ,再根据高速铁路在客运市场的地位和作用确定其客运量。最后给出一个例子对此予以说明。The influ ence factors of passenger traffic volume and the role of railway passenger trans portation in our country are analyzed. A method of forecasti ng the high speed railway passenger traffic volume in the condition of market e conomy is put forward, i.e., to forecast the total traff ic volume first, then to determine the traffic volume of high speed railways according to its role in th e total passenger transportation market. Specifically, a sample is given to illu strate the proposed forecasting method.

关 键 词：旅客运输 预测 高速铁路 客运量 客运市场 客流密度 客动周转量 时间模型 

分 类 号：U293.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]