群体AHP方法在复杂系统易损性分析中的应用  

Assessment Method for Vulnerability of Complex Systems Based on Group AHP

作　　者：刘钰[1] 董楠[1] 韩峰[1] 王玉恒[1] 乔登江[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北核技术研究所第五研究室,陕西西安710024

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2014年第8期152-158,共7页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

摘　　要：群体层次分析法(Group AHP)是专家群体评判意见的综合量化方法,本文讨论了该方法在系统易损性分析中的应用,并针对群体层次分析法专家意见合成问题,提出了基于主成分分析方法计算各专家客观权重,并根据该权重合成专家评判意见的方法.应用结果表明,该方法能更好地克服人为主观判断及偏好给决策带来的影响,为复杂系统易损性定量评估提供了有效的技术途径.Group AHP （Analytic Hierarchy Process） is a quantitative analyses method of Group Decision executed by many experts, a new method based on Principal Component Analysis for determining the objective weight of decisionmakers is proposed, which can unify the judgment of decisionmakers. It is illustrated by example that Group AHP collects intel- ligences of experts and reduces subjective effects and biases. The application result shows that the method is reasonable and feasible for assessment of vulnerability.

关 键 词：群体层次分析法 AHP 判断矩阵 主成分分析 易损性 复杂系统 

分 类 号：N941.4[自然科学总论—系统科学]