半马尔科夫下电场可修系统可靠性分析  

Reliability Analysis of Semi-Markov Power-Plant Repairable System

作　　者：张权[1,2] 崔利荣[3] 孔德景 韩旸[1] 

机构地区：[1]齐齐哈尔大学理学院,黑龙江齐齐哈尔161006 [2]北京理工大学数学与统计学院,北京100081 [3]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2014年第8期180-184,共5页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：十二五国家科技支撑计划项目(2013BAK12B0803)

摘　　要：众所周知,在马尔科夫模型下,在每个状态下的逗留时间服从指数分布,这经常太受限制,尤其是在电场可修系统中,不太适合操作数据要求.因此,提出了利用半马尔科夫过程去研究电场可修系统,而且,利用了马尔科夫更新理论和概率分析方法讨论了电场系统的稳态可用度.最后,通过一个数值例子陈述了获得的结果.It is well known that the sojourns in distinct states are all exponential distribution under Markov model, Which is often too restrictive and might not fit the actual operating data well in power-plant system especially, So we present semi-Markov process to study power-plant repairable system in this paper and discuss the system steady availability by using Markov renewal theory and probability analytic method. At last, A numerical example is given to illustrate the results in the paper.

关 键 词：半马尔科夫过程 可用度 半马尔科夫核 状态聚合 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]