基于改进无偏灰色模型的燃气供气量的预测  

Improved unbiased grey model for prediction of gas supplies

作　　者：杨杰[1] 翁文国[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学工程物理系,公共安全研究院,北京100084

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第2期145-148,共4页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家“十二五”科技支撑计划项目(2011BAK07B03)

摘　　要：为有效配置资源及保障城市安全,利用改进无偏灰色模型计算城市燃气供气量。建立无偏灰色预测模型,用3点平滑法及等维新息对数据序列进行处理,得到改进无偏灰色预测模型。根据城市供气量的统计数据,分别由无偏灰色预测模型及改进无偏灰色模型进行拟合预测,并将所得供气量与实际供气量进行比较。计算结果表明:无偏灰色模型所得预测曲线为单调递减函数,随着预测时间增加预测值和实际供气量偏差较大;改进无偏灰色模型能够改变无偏灰色模型的单调性,预测值和实际供气量比较接近,可用于中长期预测。无偏灰色模型和改进无偏灰色模型预测所得燃气供气量的相对误差均值分别为7.32%和5.76%。An improved unbiased grey model is developed to forecast urban gas supplies to efficiently allocate resources and ensure urban safety. The model uses three-point smoothing and an equal dimension new information model. Comparison of the improved unbiased grey model with the original model to predict the gas supplies indicates that the original model predictions decrease linearly so the differences between the predicted and actual gas supplies increase over time. The improved unbiased grey model gives nonlinear results that are better for mid-to-long term forecasts with the predicted gas supplies in better agreement with actual statistics. The average relative error for gas supplies predicted by the original model is 7.32% while that for the improved model is 5.76%.

关 键 词：城市安全 无偏灰色模型 改进无偏灰色模型 供气量 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]