Predicting extreme rainfall over eastern Asia by using complex networks  

作　　者：何苏红 封泰晨 龚艳春 黄雁华 吴成国 龚志强 

机构地区：[1]Institute of Science,PLA University of Science [2]Atmosphere and Science College,Lanzhou University [3]Laboratory for Climate Monitoring and Diagnosing,National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration [4]Laboratory for Climate Diagnosis of National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration

出　　处：《Chinese Physics B》2014年第5期665-670,共6页中国物理B（英文版）

基　　金：Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41205040);the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant Nos.2012CB955203 and 2012CB955902);the Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest,China(Grant No.GYHY201306021)

摘　　要：A climate network of extreme rainfall over eastern Asia is constructed for the period of 1971-2000, employing the tools of complex networks and a measure of nonlinear correlation called event synchronization （ES）. Using this network, we predict the extreme rainfall for several cases without delay and with n-day delay （1 ≤ n ≤ 10）. The prediction accuracy can reach 58% without delay, 21% with 1-day delay, and 12% with n-day delay （2 ≤ n ≤ 10）. The results reveal that the prediction accuracy is low in years of a weak east Asia summer monsoon （EASM） or 1 year later and high in years of a strong EASM or 1 year later. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy is higher due to the many more links that represent correlations between different grid points and a higher extreme rainfall rate during strong EASM years.A climate network of extreme rainfall over eastern Asia is constructed for the period of 1971-2000, employing the tools of complex networks and a measure of nonlinear correlation called event synchronization （ES）. Using this network, we predict the extreme rainfall for several cases without delay and with n-day delay （1 ≤ n ≤ 10）. The prediction accuracy can reach 58% without delay, 21% with 1-day delay, and 12% with n-day delay （2 ≤ n ≤ 10）. The results reveal that the prediction accuracy is low in years of a weak east Asia summer monsoon （EASM） or 1 year later and high in years of a strong EASM or 1 year later. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy is higher due to the many more links that represent correlations between different grid points and a higher extreme rainfall rate during strong EASM years.

关 键 词：PREDICTION extreme rainfall SYNCHRONIZATION complex networks 

分 类 号：O157.5[理学—数学]