旅游发展、空间溢出与经济增长——来自中国的经验证据  

Tourism Development,Spatial Spillover and Economic Growth:An Empirical Evidence from China

作　　者：赵磊[1,2] 方成[3] 吴向明[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工业大学经贸管理学院旅游管理系,浙江杭州310023 [2]浙江工业大学城镇化与城乡休闲研究中心,浙江杭州310023 [3]浙江财经大学数学与统计学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《旅游学刊》2014年第5期16-30,共15页Tourism Tribune

基　　金：浙江省高校工商管理重点研究基地项目(G1334107001505)资助~~

摘　　要：针对传统经验研究文献忽视空间相关性而导致的研究结论偏颇问题，文章采用经济学较为前沿的空间面板计量方法，利用中国30个省份1999～2009年面板数据，实证检验了旅游发展与经济增长之间的影响关系。研究结果表明：旅游发展呈现出明显的空间自相关性，具有显著空间集聚特征，大部分省份处于高一高和低一低类型区；旅游发展对经济增长具有显著正向促进作用，传统面板回归模型没有考虑空间相关性，高估了这一作用；旅游发展对经济增长存在显著空间溢出效应，并具有较强的稳健性。Research on the relationship between tourism development and economic growth is not only the core of tourism economics study, but also a long-term hot topic among tourism theorists. Studies on the relationship between tourism development and economic growth are voluminous, but generally they are undertaken using two approaches： theoretical analyses and empirical tests. For a long time, the impact of tourism development on economic growth has been the focus of debate throughout the history of tourism economics research. Mainstream tourism economics literatures believe that tourism development has played a significant role in promoting economic growth. However, skeptics argue that tourism development does not have long and sustainable contributions to economic growth. Thus, this article intends to explore the impact of tourism development one conomic growth in China. A literature review of overseas empirical studies shows that researchers mainly investigate the relationship between tourism development and economic growth through time-series studies and general panei data analysis. Although these researchers are consistent in defining study objects as independent observations in the traditional sense, they ignore the geospatial relevance and dependence of tourism development and economic growth. A basic preliminary judgment is that such studies neglect the spatial spillover effectof tourism development on economic growth. As a result, the findings and explanations of these traditional studies are unconvincing. The literature review indicates that little research incorporates spatial spillover effect into the research framework with regard to the impact of tourism development on economic growth. No foreign literature has touched on this topic. In response to the biased conclusion caused by the neglect of spatial correlation in traditional research, this article adopts space panel measurement, a more cutting-edge method, to analyze 30 provinces＇ panel data during 1999- 2009 in China, and empirically test the relat

关 键 词：旅游发展 经济增长 空间溢出 空间计量经济学 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理] F124[经济管理—产业经济] F224