基于故障树理论的电网调度操作实时风险评估  

Real-time risk assessment based on fault tree theory for power dispatch

作　　者：林少华 刘嘉宁 陈东 贾宏杰[2] 曾沅[2] 王丙东[2] 王恩[2] 刘哲[2] 

机构地区：[1]广东电网电力调度控制中心,广东广州510699 [2]天津大学电气与自动化工程学院,天津300072

出　　处：《电力自动化设备》2014年第5期121-125,共5页Electric Power Automation Equipment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51277128);广东电网调度操作安全风险量化评估模型研究及实用系统建设研究项目~~

摘　　要：将风险理论引入到电网调度操作中,提出一种针对调度操作的实时风险评估方法。该方法利用故障树原理模拟调度操作执行过程,采用状态枚举方法分析操作风险状态,来计算执行调度操作给电网带来的影响。建立实用化调度操作风险指标体系。IEEE-RTS测试系统结果表明,所提操作风险评估方法能够为每一步操作关联风险指标,辅助操作人员提前制定风险预控措施。A real-time risk assessment method is on the risk theory,applies the fault tree principle adopts the state enumeration method to analyze practical risk index system is built. The results associates each operational step with a risk index proposed for the to simulate the operations of power dispatch, which, based operational process of power dispatch and its risk state and estimate its impact on power grid. A of IEEE-RTS test system show that,the proposed method to help operators take precontrol measures.

关 键 词：电力系统 故障树 调度操作 风险 设备故障 评估 

分 类 号：TM734[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]