我国区域能源价格和碳排放强度异质动态关系研究  

Research on Heterogeneous Dynamic Relationship between Energy Price and Carbon Emission Intensity in Different Regions of China

作　　者：郭平[1] 陈权宝[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学管理学院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2014年第9期220-226,共7页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"基于面板分位数回归模型的IPO发行效率;波动异质性研究"(71071153)

摘　　要：运用循序结构突变检验、变结构协整模型、Cusum平方检验和Theil不等式系数分析出我国区域能源价格和碳排放强度的结构突变点,在考虑结构突变的情况下两者之间存在长期协整关系,且拟合能力更强。利用面板分位数回归模型分析表明:能源价格通过经济发展、经济结构、能源效率间接作用于碳排放强度。我国东、中部地区的经济发展对碳排放强度呈正影响,西部地区的经济发展对碳排放强度呈负影响,其中东部地区的经济发展对碳排放强度影响最大;各区域的经济结构对碳排放强度呈负影响,其中西部地区的经济结构对碳排放强度影响最大;能源效率对碳排放强度呈负影响,其中中部地区的能源效率对碳排放强度影响最大。The paper researches on structure mutation point of energy price and carbon emission intensity by sequential structure mutation test model, variable structure of co - integration model, Cusum square test and Theft inequality coeffi- cient on the eastern, central and western of China. It has long - term co - integration between them. Then, it found that the fitting ability of considering structure mutation is stronger. Then the paper uses panel data quartile regression model to obtain that energy price effects carbon emission intensity by intermediary variable. The result shows that energy price influ- ences on carbon emission intensity by three indicators. These are economic development, economic structure and energy ef- ficiency. Economic development has positive influence on carbon emission intensity in the eastern and central region, but the western has negative impact. It has the most important influence on eastern region. Their structure features are negative influence. It has the most important influence on western region. Their energy efficiency imposes negative influence, too. It has the most important influence on central region.

关 键 词：能源价格 碳排放强度 结构突变 面板分位数回归 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济] X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]