历史销售信息对供应链牛鞭效应的影响——以双十一促销为背景  

Impacts of Historical Sales Information on Bullwhip Effect of the Supply Chain- Under the Background of Dual Eleven Promotion

作　　者：田立平[1] 孙群[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京物资学院信息学院,北京101149

出　　处：《商业研究》2014年第5期177-184,共8页Commercial Research

基　　金：北京市教委科技面上项目;项目编号:SQKM201210037001;北京市教师队伍建设--教学名师项目资助

摘　　要：在促销活动下,大量的产品需求会对分销商的订货与库存控制产生影响,而订货量不合理会产生严重的牛鞭效应。本文基于消费者的预期行为,以双十一促销为例,运用统计分析方法分析了在需求为价格敏感函数时,考虑由一个分销商和一个零售商组成的两级供应链,历史销售信息在促销背景下对分销商牛鞭效应的影响;同时,对比分析了分销商在利用现有销售信息和考虑历史销售信息进行需求预测时的牛鞭效应的大小,并得出利用历史销售信息可以降低牛鞭效应的结论。In the promotion , a large number of products demand will affect the ordering and inventory control for the dis -tributors, and unreasonable order quantity will bring serious bullwhip effect .The paper considers the two echelon supply chain composed of a distributor and a retailer under the background of double eleven promotion , and studies the effect of historical sales information on bullwhip effect of the distributors based on consumers ′expected behavior .When the de-mand is price sensitive function , it uses the method of statistical analysis to analyze the effect of promotion on retailers ′bullwhip effect;at the same time , it compares the bullwhip effect when retailers use existing sales information and histor -ical sales information to forecast demand , drawing a conclusion that the historical sales information can significantly re-duce the bullwhip effect;the numerical examples are presented to validate the results .

关 键 词：双十一促销 价格预期 历史销售信息 牛鞭效应 

分 类 号：F252[经济管理—国民经济]